Gold Makes Surprising Move on Fed Expectations

GOLD

4,477.20

$/oz

▲ +94.20 (+2.15%)

SILVER

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PLATINUM

1,782.00

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PALLADIUM

1,382.50

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COPPER

6.62

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GOLD MINERS INDEX

773.60

pts

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SPDR GOLD ETF

405.29

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SILVER ETF

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Gold Market Context: Macro Drivers

Key macro instruments that drive gold price movements: dollar, yields, risk appetite

DXY

US Dollar Index

99.87 pts

▲ 0.27 (+0.27%)

headwind for gold

Gold inverse — rising dollar pressures gold

US10Y

10-Yr Treasury

4.67 %

▲ 0.00 (+0.04%)

headwind for gold

Real yield pressure — higher yields weigh on gold

SPX

S&P 500

7,741.48 pts

▲ 17.93 (+0.23%)

headwind for gold

Risk appetite — equity rallies reduce safe-haven demand

BTC

Bitcoin

63,441.74 USD

▼ 1462.95 (-2.25%)

negative for gold

Alt safe haven — moves with gold in risk-off

WTI

Crude Oil (WTI)

83.28 $/bbl

▲ 5.10 (+6.52%)

positive for gold

Inflation proxy — rising oil can lift gold

EURUSD

EUR / USD

1.15

▲ 0.00 (+-0.13%)

positive for gold

Dollar strength gauge — inverse to DXY

▲ Rising DXY or yields typically pressure gold | ▲ Falling yields or geopolitical risk support gold | Live data — fetched at send time

Market Commentary

Gold Makes Surprising Move on Fed Expectations

Gold has surged to a two-month high, driven by weaker U.S. jobs data that has bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve may refrain from further rate increases. This shift in sentiment places gold within striking distance of the significant $4,500 level, a psychological barrier for investors. The recent rally reflects a third consecutive advance and the strongest performance since early June. The market is currently grappling with mixed signals regarding future rate hikes, with expectations split between a potential 25-basis-point increase and maintaining the current rates. Lower interest-rate expectations typically diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, making it more attractive to investors. However, the upcoming inflation data will play a crucial role in shaping these expectations, as a hotter-than-expected print could reignite rate-hike fears and exert downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, a softer inflation reading could reinforce the notion that rates have peaked, potentially allowing gold to challenge the $4,500 mark and eye the April-May highs near $4,800. Additionally, lower real yields, improved investor positioning, and ongoing central bank demand have provided a supportive backdrop for gold's advance. As we approach the release of key inflation metrics and the Fed's upcoming policy meeting, investors should closely monitor these developments, as they will be pivotal in determining gold's trajectory in the near term. The interplay between CPI, real yields, and the dollar will be critical in shaping the outlook for gold prices moving forward.

Unhappy Anniversary

This month marks 55 years since the closure of the "gold window," a pivotal moment that severed the last direct link between the US dollar and gold. This historical context is crucial as it underscores the ongoing volatility in gold prices, particularly in relation to currency fluctuations and inflationary pressures. The dollar's strength continues to play a significant role in determining gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. As the dollar appreciates, gold often faces downward pressure, making it less attractive for investors seeking to hedge against currency risk. Additionally, inflation remains a persistent concern, with rising prices prompting some investors to turn to gold as a store of value. Central bank demand for gold has also been robust, as institutions seek to diversify their reserves amidst economic uncertainty. ETF flows indicate a mixed sentiment, with some investors pulling back while others accumulate positions in anticipation of future price movements. Geopolitical tensions further complicate the landscape, as uncertainty can drive demand for gold as a hedge against instability. As we reflect on this anniversary, it is clear that the dynamics influencing gold prices are multifaceted, requiring investors to remain vigilant and adaptable in their strategies. Overall, the interplay of these factors will continue to shape the gold market in the months ahead.

Rand Paul Becomes a Pawn in Fort Knox Gold Audit Debate

Gold prices are influenced by ongoing debates surrounding the transparency of U.S. gold reserves, particularly the discussions about the contents of Fort Knox. The assertion by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that all the gold is securely stored in Fort Knox raises questions about the credibility of U.S. gold holdings, which can impact investor confidence. When doubts arise regarding the physical backing of gold, we often see fluctuations in gold prices as investors reassess their positions. Additionally, political figures like Senator Rand Paul becoming involved in this debate can amplify scrutiny and public interest, potentially leading to increased demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty. If the narrative shifts towards a lack of transparency or potential mismanagement of gold reserves, we could see a surge in safe-haven buying. Furthermore, the implications of such debates extend beyond just the gold market; they can influence broader economic sentiment and the behavior of central banks. As geopolitical tensions rise, gold often benefits from its status as a safe-haven asset, and any uncertainty surrounding U.S. gold reserves could exacerbate this trend. Investors should remain vigilant, as the interplay between political discourse and gold market dynamics can create volatility. Ultimately, the ongoing discussions about Fort Knox may serve to reinforce gold's appeal in an environment characterized by skepticism and demand for security. As we navigate these developments, it is crucial to monitor how they affect both investor sentiment and gold's price trajectory.

China Official Gold Buying Accelerates as it Brings Some of Its Gold Home

China's official gold buying has accelerated significantly, with the People's Bank of China purchasing 640,000 troy ounces in July alone. This move indicates a strategic shift as China begins to repatriate some of its gold reserves, which could signal a desire for greater financial security amid global economic uncertainties. As central banks globally continue to diversify their reserves away from the U.S. dollar, this trend in China could further bolster demand for gold. The increased central bank purchases are likely to support gold prices, particularly as geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures persist. Investors should note that such actions by a major economy like China can influence market sentiment and drive speculative interest in gold. Additionally, the repatriation of gold may reflect concerns over the stability of foreign reserves and a push towards a more self-reliant monetary policy. With central banks ramping up their gold acquisitions, we may see a tightening supply in the market, which historically has been bullish for prices. Furthermore, as the dollar's strength fluctuates, gold often finds itself as a safe haven, especially in times of currency volatility. Overall, the combination of increased central bank demand and geopolitical factors suggests a supportive environment for gold prices in the near term. Investors should remain vigilant as these dynamics unfold, as they could lead to significant price movements in the gold market.

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Today's Interesting Company News

Integra Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results: 30% Increase in Quarterly Gold Production with Record Total Tonnes Mined

(TSXV: ITR) Integra Resources Corp. announced financial and operating results for the three months ended June 30, 2026, reporting quarterly revenue of $70.8 million and gold production of 16,379 ounces at the Florida Canyon Mine. The company mined 4.4 million tonnes of ore and 3.6 million tonnes of waste at a strip ratio of 0.81, achieving record mining rates of 87,867 tonnes per day. In Q2 2026, Florida Canyon sold 15,794 gold ounces at an average realized price of $4,426 per gold ounce. Cash and cash equivalents were $111.1 million at June 30, 2026, benefitting from a $57.5 million bought deal public offering completed in the first quarter of 2026. The updated Florida Canyon Technical Report outlined an 8-year mine life, a 74% increase in Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves, a 17% increase in average annual gold production, approximately $0.8 billion in after-tax free cash flow, and $601 million after-tax net present value (5%). The company completed 8,501 meters of drilling in Q2 2026 as part of its 42,500 meter 2026 growth-focused drilling program at Florida Canyon.

Puma Exploration Announces Launch of Kinross Gold Corp. Drilling Program at Williams Brook

(TSXV:PUMA) Puma Exploration Inc. announced that Kinross Gold Corp. has begun another round of drilling at the Williams Brook Gold Project under its Option Agreement. The initial 2,000-metre drilling program was launched at the Jaguar Gold Zone on July 26, 2026, and includes seven holes ranging from 200 to 500 metres. In early 2026, Kinross launched a five-hole, 1,360-metre drilling campaign at Jaguar. Hole WB-08-03 intersected 2.10 g/t Au over 9.00 m within a broader envelope grading 0.52 g/t Au over 55.00 m. Hole WB26-195 intersected 0.45 g/t Au over 56.50 m, including 1.03 g/t Au over 16.0 m. The May to July 2026 program included regional prospecting, geological mapping, soil geochemistry surveys, trenching, and a drone magnetic survey covering 2,920.9 hectares. Kinross has committed to finance a minimum of $16.75 million in exploration expenditures over five years (2025-2030) to earn a 65% interest in the Williams Brook Project.

Conquest Resources Samples 15.31 G/t Gold Over 3.00 M at Smith Lake

(TSXV: CQR) Conquest Resources Limited announced channel and grab sample results from its 100% owned Smith Lake Gold Project, situated adjacent to Barrick Mining Corp.'s past producing Renabie Gold Mine which produced more than 1,000,000 oz. of gold from 1941 through to 1991 at a grade of 6.6 g/t Au and 2 g/t Ag. In June, 2026, Conquest personnel collected 15 channel samples and 3 grab samples from the Campbell Vein at Smith Lake. Channel sample lengths ranged from 0.35 to 1.60 m, with results ranging from 0.03 g/t to 29.1 g/t Au, and 6 of the 15 channel samples returned > 1 g/t Au. Grab samples ranged from 0.17 to 4.98 g/t Au. Two composite weighted averages from Channels 1 and 5 returned 1.95 g/t over 1.95 m from Channel 1, and 15.31 g/t over 3.00 m from Channel 5. Conquest is expanding its exploration program at Smith Lake with an approximate 500 sample B-horizon geochemical survey planned this fall. Conquest recently acquired the Valimaki Gold Project in southwestern Finland, a district-scale gold exploration property with extensive historical exploration and drilling.

White Gold Announces Approval of W2 Critical Minerals Corp Spinout

(TSXV:WGO) (OTCQX:WHGOF) White Gold Corp. announced the approval by shareholders of the spin-out of certain critical mineral properties located in Yukon to W2 Critical Minerals Corp. pursuant to a plan of arrangement under the Business Corporations Act (Ontario). The court hearing for the final order to approve the Spin-Out is scheduled to take place on August 13, 2026. A total of 102,459,947 common shares were voted at the Annual General and Special Meeting of shareholders held on August 11, 2026, representing approximately 46.12% of the votes attached to all the outstanding WGO Shares as of the record date of June 29, 2026. The Spin-Out will transfer interests in the Critical Mineral Assets to W2 in exchange for common shares of W2, and distribute the W2 Shares to shareholders as a dividend-in-kind on the basis of one W2 Share for every five WGO Shares held. Following completion of the Spin-Out and after giving effect to the Financing, White Gold is expected to hold an approximate 19.9% ownership interest in W2. The Company adopted a new Omnibus Incentive Plan, with a maximum of 10% of issued and outstanding WGO Shares issuable upon exercise or settlement of awards, and 5% pursuant to restricted share units or 11,082,850 WGO Shares. The Company's flagship White Gold project hosts four near-surface gold deposits which collectively contain a resource estimate of 1,732,300 ounces of gold in indicated resources and 1,265,900 ounces of gold in inferred resources.

Galantas Gold: Contractors Selected for Andacollo Gold Project

(TSX-V:GAL AIM:GAL) Galantas Gold Corporation has selected M3 Engineering & Technology Corporation to lead the Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) and the crushing plant relocation program for its 100%-owned Andacollo Gold Project in the Coquimbo Region of Chile. The PEA is targeting completion for Q4 2026. The acquired crushing plant has a stated design capacity of approximately 20,000 tonnes per day. NCL Ingeniería y Construcción Ltda. of Chile is advancing the mine design and production schedules, and STRACON is providing mining cost, fleet and execution-planning input. The Project is supported by the Mineral Resource Estimate set out in the Technical Report with an effective date of February 1, 2026 and a report date of May 4, 2026. The Project and operations team led by Robert Sedgemore, Senior Vice President Operations, is advancing infrastructure refurbishment, procurement, contractor engagement and operational readiness at site. The Company is advancing toward a potential restart, currently targeted for the first quarter of 2027.

Sierra Nevada Gold Discovers Polymetallic System at as Safra Project in Saudi Arabia

(ASX: SNX) Sierra Nevada Gold has discovered a polymetallic breccia system at the As Safra copper-gold project in Saudi Arabia following the intersection of high-grade precious and base metals mineralisation in two reverse circulation holes. The gold-silver-copper-lead-zinc discovery sits beneath shallow cover approximately 400 metres south of the Central Copper Zone. Best assay from the reverse circulation holes was 11m at 1.15 grams per tonne gold, 108.7g/t silver, 0.21% copper, 4.64% zinc and 1.88% lead from 49m within a broader interval of 17m at 0.81g/t gold, 75.2g/t silver, 0.14% copper, 3.08% zinc and 1.25% lead. The geometry and true width of the new breccia will be investigated during follow-up drilling under an expanded Phase 2 campaign comprising more than 25,000m of reverse circulation and diamond work. The campaign will aim to expand known mineralised footprints, evaluate extensions to mineralisation along strike and at depth across the broader 5.5 kilometre corridor, and test concealed targets to define relationships between the copper-gold skarn, gold-dominant zones, and polymetallic breccia.

Lachlan Star Confirms Emerging High-Grade Gold Discovery at New Waverley Project

(ASX:LSA) Lachlan Star has confirmed an emerging high-grade gold discovery within the Waverley Pit area of its New Waverley project in Western Australia with strong initial results in a follow-up reverse circulation (RC) drilling campaign. Drilling of 15 holes for a total 4,570 metres targeted down-plunge continuity and extensions of mineralisation identified through an earlier maiden diamond campaign. The earlier maiden diamond campaign returned a best assay of 6.15 metres at 8.6 grams per tonne gold from 46.9m including 2.9m at 17.7g/t. Best assays to date have been 16m at 5.3g/t gold from 44m including 4m at 20g/t from 52m; 8m at 5.37g/t gold from 44m including 4m at 10.25g/t from 44m; 12m at 3.11g/t gold from 52m including 8m at 4.5g/t from 52m; and 8m at 2.35g/t gold from 48m. The follow-up program exceeded the original program following positive field observations of quartz veining and sulphide mineralisation across the full 400m of currently defined strike. Assays for the remaining RC holes and selective 1m re-splits from mineralised intervals are expected over the next six weeks.

Dreadnought Resources Defines 15km Mangaroon Gold Anomaly as Illaara Pipeline Builds

(ASX:DRE) Dreadnought Resources has defined a strong gold-in-soil anomaly extending for approximately 15 kilometres along the Minga Bar shear at its 100%-owned Mangaroon gold project in Western Australia’s Gascoyne region. Reconnaissance drilling at the end of 2025 returned gold mineralisation at the Cullen’s Find, Midday Moon, and Midnight Star prospects. The company has defined a 27,000-ounce resource grading 11.1g/t gold at the Star of Mangaroon. Final assays released on 10 August at Illaara outlined 13 mineralised corridors over more than 40km of combined strike after first-pass air core drilling tested only about 10% of the greenstone belt. Reconnaissance RC drilling completed in 2025 included 25m at 1.0g/t gold from 22m at Cullen’s Find, including 12m at 1.4g/t gold. Midnight Star returned 4m at 3.2g/t gold from 12m including 1m at 11.4g/t gold, while Midday Moon produced 3m at 0.3g/t gold, 0.2% copper and 0.2% bismuth from 62m. At Illaara, a 493-hole air core program covering about 35,000m identified 13 anomalous mineralised corridors ranging from about 1.5km to more than 7km in strike.

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